Nexus One Sales: Will They Be More Like Avatar or Gigli?

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src=”http://cdn.mashable.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/nexus-avatar-260.jpg” class=”alignright”>The launch of the Google href=”http://mashable.com/tag/nexus-one”>Nexus One is one of the most hyped phone releases in recent memory. Only the href=”http://mashable.com/mobile/iphone/”>iPhone, Palm Pre and Droid really compare to the hype.

Yet now we’ve learned that href=”http://mashable.com/2010/01/13/nexus-one-20000-units/”>only around 20,000 Nexus Ones have been sold in the first week, a dismal number compared to the href=”http://mashable.com/2009/11/16/droid-first-week-sales/”>250,000 Droids and 1.6 million iPhone 3GSes sold in their first seven days on the market. What the hell happened? /> id=”more-183555″> /> It’s definitely not time for Google to panic, especially as Google attempts to pioneer a new business model for selling phones and many have yet to be shipped out. Still, the fabled Google Phone seems insignificant compared to its bigger Apple rival.

From this point on, I suggest that Nexus One sales will mimic the sales of one of two movies: the James Cameron blockbuster Avatar or the Ben Affleck/Jennifer Lopez box office bomb Gigli.

The Gigli Scenario

Gigli had a budget of $54 million, much of which was used to pay for the salaries of Affleck, Lopez and Al Pacino. During its first weekend, though, the movie grossed less than $4 million, an utter bomb. It’s now considered by many as one of the biggest box office bombs of all time (as well as being a terrible, terrible movie).

In the Gigli scenario, the Nexus One would continue to sell badly, never really breaking 20,000 units sold per week. Sure, eventually there might be a few hundred thousand on the market, but Google’s phone wouldn’t come anywhere near the sales of the iPhone or the Droid. More importantly, Google wouldn’t recuperate its cost and its reputation would be tarnished.

At least href=”http://mashable.com/google”>Google would get a Razzie.

The Avatar Effect

Avatar started out with a bang on its href=”http://mashable.com/2009/12/21/avatar-earnings/”>opening weekend, although nothing like Spiderman or Pirates of the Carribean. But then, like Titanic, the movie href=”http://mashable.com/2010/01/08/avatar-social-media-web/”>didn’t slow down. It’s now the second highest grossing movie of all time because people are still buying tickets long after its opening weekend.

In the Avatar scenario, the Nexus One benefits from positive buzz, happy customers and word-of-mouth marketing. Its sales either stay consistent or rise as more and more people experience their friends’ Google phones. Another bump occurs when the device hits the Nexus One. The end result would eventually be a launch that beat the href=”http://mashable.com/tag/droid/”>Droid and comes close to sales of the iPhone.

Which Scenario Is More Likely?

I’ve presented two potential outcomes for Nexus One sales, but as with most things in life, the answer lies in the middle. The Nexus One won’t bomb; it’s too good of a phone for that to happen. What’s more likely is that people will slowly become more comfortable with the online sales model Google is pioneering with its self-branded phone and will eventually purchase it after playing around with a friend’s phone or hearing enough about it.

Will the Nexus One beat the Droid? Probably not. The Droid just has a lot more marketing muscle behind it. Yet it’s not the Nexus One that will likely be Google’s star device, but the Nexus Two and whatever phones it releases in the product line.

Google is making a long-term investment in Android and in changing the business model of choosing a carrier first and a business model second. As it hones in on the perfect phone and more people get comfortable with href=”http://google.com/phone” >Google.com/Phone, sales will pick up.

Eventually, the Nexus line will reach Avatar levels, only second to the iPhone. We’re not worried about the long-term prospects of the Google Phone.

/>Reviews: href=”http://www.blippr.com/apps/336868-Android” >Android, href=”http://www.blippr.com/apps/336661-Google” >Google

Tags: href=”http://mashable.com/tag/android/”>android, href=”http://mashable.com/tag/avatar/”>avatar, href=”http://mashable.com/tag/gigli/”>Gigli, href=”http://mashable.com/tag/google/”>Google, href=”http://mashable.com/tag/nexus-one/”>nexus one

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